A new recession?
The question posed in the title of this text, no doubt has an affirmative answer. Yes, we will have a new recession, but the problem is when we will start to feel it, when will our expectations change and when will we enter another phase of economic downturn, once again and apparently by surprise.
It is therefore necessary to recover coordinated stimuli to increase demand and revive the international economy.
The most influential factors in the new situation are, among others, the forced landing of China's economy, the depletion of US growth, which grew only 0.2% in the last quarter of 2015.
It lasted approximately from 2012 to 2015, when developed countries began to emerge from the recession, with difficulty, and there has not been a real improvement rather only a slight recovery, which may be heralding an even more serious future crisis.
The first decade of the 21st century saw an international financial crisis comparable only to that of the 1930s, known as the Great Depression.
A crisis in Europe would send a lethal lightning bolt through the world’s currency and stock markets. Unparalleled economic turmoil—far worse than 2008—could follow.
The year 2016 had hardly begun and the losses in different stock markets around the world care were already colossal: nearly 8 trillion US dollars during the first three weeks of January according to the calculations of the Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Despite Trump's constant criticism of the media, his triumph for many analysts was not surprising, adding that during the campaign, voters did not reveal their intentions to vote.
Are the APP and the extraordinarily low interest rate still appropriate, given the current average macro-economic environment in the euro area?
The different issues considered in the present work lead to at least five major conclusions, which we will explain below. The first conclusion has to do with the historical nature of the crisis and its depth.
2016 was supposed to be the year that the Federal Reserve "normalized" its policies. As much as two years ago -after years of a near-zero target rate- the Fed was swearing that it would begin to raise rates back to "normal" levels and cut its balance sheet. That never happened.
In recent years, central banks have managed to prevent markets from worrying about guessing the direction of their policies by giving them indications that have not been too dramatic or overly inaccurate.