Monday, October 14, 2019
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< view full issue: USA-China, cold war 21st century
Germán Gorraiz López

​Is the US looking for a new Oil Crisis?

Financial analyst

The Kissinger Doctrine advocated the implementation of G-2 (USA and China) as world referees. Thus, in an article published by the New York Times, entitled "The chance for a new world order", Kissinger already considers China a great power (a fellow superpower), discourages protectionism or treating China as an enemy (which would turn it into a real enemy) and calls for the relations between the United States and China to be raised to a new level on the basis of the concept of a common destiny (following the model of the transatlantic relationship after the Second World War), with which we would see the enthronement of the Pacific Trajectory (America-Asia) as the leading world commercial axis to the detriment of the Atlantic Trajectory (America-Europe). However, the Pentagon's clearly identifiable goal would be confrontation with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), founded in 2001 by the Five of Shanghai (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) plus Uzbekistan and converted together with the countries of the ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of America) and Iran in the hard core of the resistance to the world hegemony of the United States and Great Britain.


Petroleo



WILL THE US-CHINA COMMERCIAL WAR PROVOKE THE END of ECONOMIC GLOBALISATION?


The return to the recurrent endemism of the Cold War between the US-Russia after the crisis in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions by the EU-Japan-USA against Russia would mark the beginning of the decline of global economy and free trade, particularly since it proved that the Doha Round was inoperative (the body inoperative whose main objective was to liberalise world trade through major negotiations between the 153 member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and having failed in all its attempts since its creation in 2011. So, we will witness the termination of the transnational Trade Agreements (TTIP, NAFTA and TTP) and the implementation of protectionist measures by the First World economies against emerging countries whose paradigm would be the establishment by the US of anti-dumping measures against steel and Chinese aluminium, through the imposition of tariffs of 25% and 10% respectively, which initiated a commercial war and the return to economic Neo-Protectionism. The next step will be the onset of the Currency War, which will consist of a progressive devaluation of the different currencies by the World Central Banks, the rupture of the parity system of the international currencies and their subsequent free fluctuation, which will end up projecting a scenario on the horizon in the next five years that will go from trade wars to economic protectionism, leading to contraction of world trade, the ensuing end of economic globalisation and subsequent return to a world economy of closed compartments.


IS THE US TRYING TO DRY UP CHINA'S ENERGY SOURCES?


China would have taken on the challenge of building a new canal in Nicaragua (Interoceanic Grand Canal) similar to the channel of the Kra isthmus that was planned between Thailand and Burma to get around the Strait of Malacca, turned de facto into a saturated seaway, compromised by pirate attacks, with the gas pipeline that unites China with Turkmenistan inaugurated in 2010 and that surrounds Russia to avoid its total Russian energy dependence while diversifying its sources of supply. On top of this, China would build an extensive shipping network, which would include sea ports, logistic bases and observation stations in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Burma and the paradigm port, the strategic port in Pakistan, Gwadar, (the "gorge" of the Persian Gulf), 72 Km. from the border with Iran and about 400 Km. from the leading oil transport corridor and quite close to the strategic Strait of Hormuz.


The port was built and financed by China and is operated by the state-owned China Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC), given that the region surrounding the port of Gwadar contains two-thirds of the world's oil reserves and through which transits 30 percent of the world's oil and 80 percent of that received by China, and moreover is on the shortest trajectory to Asia (Silk Road). Also, the Chinese-Venezuelan agreement by which the Chinese state-owned petrochemical company Sinopec will invest 14,000 million dollars to achieve a daily oil production of 200,000 barrels of oil per day in the Orinoco Oil Belt, (considered the most abundant oil field in the world), would be a torpedo to the global geopolitics of the US.


Consequently, after the Army coup in Thailand, we would be witness to two CIA blows in Venezuela and Nicaragua to oust Maduro and Ortega with the unequivocal aim of drying up China's energy sources, as the confessed goal of the US would be the confrontation with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), founded in 2001 by the Shanghai Five (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) plus Uzbekistan and converted together with the ALBA countries and Iran into the hard core of the resistance to the global hegemony of the United States and Great Britain.


Regarding Iraq, according to an article published by the New York Times, a good part of Iraq's oil production would be destined for China, given that Western companies (Exxon Mobil, Shell, BP and others would be reluctant to invest in this particular country, given that the royalties, taxes and other charges charged in Iraq usually gobble up 90% or more of oil company profits, while investments in the US get a 50% profit coupled with the fact that the US imports only the 3% of its oil needs from Iraq Thus, in 2008 the Government of Al Maliki signed an agreement with China estimated be worth 3,000 million dollars, through which the state company China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) obtained the exploitation rights for 23 years of the oil field of Al Ahdab (the largest oilfield opened in Iraq during the last two decades with an estimated production of 25,000 barrels per day), China renouncing 80 percent of the debt inherited from the time of Saddam Hussein, estimated at about 8,500 million dollars, so we will be witness to the sabotage by Israel and US commandos of large oil fields such as the one quoted from Al Ahdab that will be attributed to the Islamic State.


IRAN, ISRAEL'S FOE


in a discourse before the National Iranian American Council, (NIAC), President Carter's former National Security Adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski stated that he believed that the US has the right to decide their own national security policy and not to follow what the Israelis do "like a stupid mule." In addition, Brzezinski would be at odds with neo-republican and Jewish lobbies in the US and with their usual sharpness would have discredited the geostrategic myopia of both lobbyists by stating that he considered them so obsessed with Israel, the Persian Gulf, Iraq and Iran that they had lost of view the global picture: the real power in the world being Russia and China, the only countries with a real capacity to resist the United States and the UK and on which they would have to keep an eye on.


We therefore find ourselves at a crucial juncture in defining the mediate future of the Near and Middle East, because after the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House, the pressure of the pro-Israeli US lobby (AIPAC) to further the destabilization of Iran by expeditious methods, a point that will be used by the USA, Great Britain and Israel to proceed to redesign the disjointed puzzle maps formed that these countries form and thus achieve strategically advantageous borders for Israel, following the plan orchestrated 60 years ago jointly by the governments of Great Britain, the United States and Israel and that would have the support of the principle western allies.


In this way, after the US Congress and Senate's approval by of a declaration developed by the Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and the Democrat Robert Menéndez that clearly states that "if Israel is forced to defend itself and take action (against Iran), the US he will be at their side to support them militarily and diplomatically" and with the Trump Administration we will see an increase in pressure from the pro-Israeli US lobby (AIPAC) to proceed to the destabilization of Iran by expeditious methods.


In a first phase of this plan, the US Senate unanimously renewed the Iran Sanctions Law (ISA) until 2026 and after the launching of a new ballistic missile by Iran, Trump extended sanctions against several Iranian companies related to ballistic missiles without violating the Nuclear Agreement signed between the G + 5 and Iran in 2015, known as the Comprehensive Plan of Joint Action (JCPOA) and which would only be a fireworks show to distract the attention to the Machiavellian Plan outlined by the Anglo-Jewish Alliance in 1960 that would include the Balkanization of Iran. In this way, the US and Israel would have begun to direct the DAESH through media attacks and selective destabilization of the regime of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and whose first paradigm would be the recent double attack in the heart of Tehran. This war will be a new local Chapter that would be framed in the return to the recurrent endemism of the US-Russia Cold War and will involve both superpowers having the regional powers (Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran) as necessary collaborators, covering the geographical area that extends from the Mediterranean arc (Libya, Syria and Lebanon) to Yemen and Somalia and having Iraq as epicentre (recalling the Vietnam War with Lindon B. Johnson (1963-1969).


DOES THE US SEEK A NEW CRISIS OF OIL?


In an interview by Gerald Posner in The Daily Beast (September 18th, 2009) Brzezinski stated that "an American-Iranian collision would have disastrous effects for the United States and China, while Russia would emerge as the great winner, as the foreseeable closure of The Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, where the oil destined to Northeast Asia (China, Japan and South Korea), Europe and the United States is transported through, would raise the price of black gold to stratospheric levels and have severe repercussions in the global economy, the EU becoming totally dependent on Russian crude".


To avoid this, the Trump Administration will try to replace the Russian energy dependence (30% of the gas that the EU imports comes from Russia) by fracking dependence, flooding the European market with LNG (natural gas fracked in the US and transported by gas carriers) to sink the prices of Russian gas. Another objective would be to promote the use of the fracking technique in all the countries of Eastern Europe, the so-called "European fracking arch" that would extend from the Baltic countries to the European Ukraine, passing through Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria and that would depend on the technology of American companies such as Chevron and Shell.


As regards the Strait of Hormuz, according to estimates of the IEA (International Energy Agency), 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in oil tankers would pass through the narrow channel, (which would represent 30% of the supply of oil that is commercialized worldwide), and in the event of it being blocked, this closure of naval traffic by a knock-on effect would extend to the Suez Canal. This Canal is considered one of the most important points for world trade since it transports 2.6 million barrels of crude oil per day (which represents almost 3% of the world's daily oil demand) and it is also a significant route for liquefied natural gas (LNG), since nearly 13% of the world's production of this gas transits through it and its hypothetical closure would cause the interruption of the supply of around 2.6 million barrels per day and the Gulf of Aden that connects the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal with a transit of more than 18,000 vessels. All this will lead to a dangerous increase in oil prices (to around $100) that will lead to unbridled inflation rates, increases in the price of money by the People's Bank of China (BPC) and the economic suffocation of countless companies within of the Brzezinskin's strategy to achieve the total Chinese energy dependence on Russia, and in a later phase ending up confronting themselves and finally submitting them to, and implementing, the new world order under the Anglo-Jewish-American aegis.

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